Should You Buy a Home in San Diego in 2024?

By Mike Fake · April 2026 · 7 min read

I get this question more than any other right now: "Mike, should I just wait?"

With mortgage rates still elevated compared to the historic lows of 2020–2021, and San Diego home prices refusing to budge much despite those rates, buyers are understandably hesitant. I understand the instinct to wait. But after 20+ years in this business, I want to give you the honest answer — not the one that just makes you feel better.

What the Numbers Actually Say

San Diego County median home prices have held remarkably firm. Despite rates climbing from sub-3% to the mid-6s and higher, we haven't seen the price correction many predicted. Why? Because inventory remains historically low. Homeowners who locked in 3% rates in 2021 have little incentive to sell — and that's keeping supply constrained throughout North County and the rest of San Diego.

What this means practically: if you're waiting for prices to drop significantly, you may be waiting a long time. And while you wait, rents in Encinitas, Carlsbad, and coastal San Diego continue to climb.

The "Wait for Rates to Drop" Calculation

Here's something most buyers don't fully think through. If rates drop from 7% to 5.5% next year — which would be a significant, fast drop — what happens to home prices? Competition surges. Every buyer who was sitting on the sidelines jumps in at once. That drives prices up, potentially erasing the payment savings from the lower rate.

The industry phrase is "marry the house, date the rate." Buy the home you want at today's price, and refinance when rates improve. I've helped dozens of clients do exactly this over the past couple of years — buy now, refinance later — and they're glad they did.

What I'm Seeing on the Ground in North County

In Encinitas and Carlsbad specifically, well-priced homes are still moving quickly. I'm seeing multiple offers on move-in ready properties in desirable school districts. The $900K–$1.3M range is particularly competitive. Buyers who are pre-approved and ready to move are winning — buyers who are waiting for the "perfect moment" are getting outbid or watching prices tick up.

That said, the market has softened enough that buyers have more leverage than they did in 2021. Sellers are more willing to negotiate on closing costs, repairs, and even price reductions on properties that sit more than 30 days. That's a meaningful shift from the frenzy of two years ago.

When Waiting Actually Makes Sense

I'm not going to tell everyone to buy right now — that's not honest advice. Waiting makes sense if:

• Your credit score needs work (improving from 680 to 740+ could save you $300–$500/month)
• You don't have a stable income history yet (most lenders want 2 years)
• You're not sure how long you'll stay in San Diego (buying and selling within 2–3 years rarely makes financial sense)
• Your down payment savings would leave you completely cash-strapped at closing

What I'd Tell My Own Family

If my adult child came to me today and said they planned to stay in North County San Diego for 5+ years, had stable income, decent credit, and enough for a down payment — I'd tell them to buy. Not because I make money when people buy (I make money when people get mortgages, not when they wait), but because I've seen this market for two decades and I know that San Diego real estate rewards long-term holders.

The best time to buy in San Diego was 10 years ago. The second best time is now — if your personal situation supports it.

Let's Run Your Numbers

Every situation is different. If you're genuinely on the fence, let's do a free analysis together. I'll look at your income, credit, savings, and goals — and give you an honest recommendation, even if that recommendation is to wait.

No pressure. No sales pitch. Just 20+ years of experience applied to your specific situation.